Energy Imbalance Expanding: Climate Change Accelerating as Aerosol Mask Declining

Source: Leon Simons

Recent satellite, ocean, and observational analyses show Earth is absorbing noticeably more energy than it sends back to space. Greenhouse gases continue to climb and now contribute roughly +4.1 W/m² of forcing since pre-industrial times. At the same time, the cooling effect from aerosols has weakened as fuels and air pollution controls improve. Satellite and ocean measurements confirm that the planet’s energy imbalance has grown since the early 2000’s. Most of this excess energy goes into the oceans, melts ice, and drives more extreme weather. These combined signals mean warming is accelerating and that faster emissions cuts and stronger adaptation are urgent.

Why This Matters

• Greenhouse Gases (grey line) Now Main Driver: Warming is no longer subtle. The planet is retaining more heat than in the recent past, and that extra energy drives stronger extremes.

• Fading Aerosol Mask (green/yellow): Tiny particles from burning dirty fuels have cooled the planet. These particles are now shrinking as we adopt cleaner fuels (e.g. low-sulfur shipping) and cut pollution. That’s good for air quality, but it reveals more warming underneath.

• Net Forcing (brown): The total change in Earth's energy balance due to human and natural activities, leading to climate change is higher than many models expected.

• Earth’s Energy Imbalance (orange): Satellite and ocean data confirm the excess heat. The new observations indicate twice of the IPCC’s best estimates

In other words, we are not warming in a gentle linear way that’s why the 2020s already feel like climate chaos: record ocean heat uptake, melting ice, and extreme heatwaves. The growing energy imbalance means warming is accelerating, not slowing. Unless we cut emissions fast. The orange satellite line in the graph (earth’s energy gain) makes it clear: warming is outpacing old forecasts.

Action Items

• Stakeholders: Learn local heat, flood, and wildfire risks; support stronger planning and resilience in your community.

• Investors: Stress-test portfolios for faster warming scenarios; shift capital toward clean energy, storage, grid upgrades, and resilient infrastructure.

• Companies: Include physical-risk scenarios in capital planning and supply-chain decisions.

• Policymakers: Tighten emissions targets, accelerate clean-energy deployment, and fund adaptation and monitoring to protect frontline communities.

Understanding this graph makes it clear that time is short. Recognizing the accelerating imbalance should spur urgent action by citizens, investors and leaders alike.