The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) stabilizes the climate in the U.S., Mexico, Europe and beyond. But new scientific peer review analysis published in Nature Geoscience shows that the AMOC could collapse in our lifetimes, weakening by 33% in the next 15 years. Why It Matters
Crossing climate tipping points would result in economic depression.
Further slowing negatively impacts agriculture production across NATO.
Geological records shows AMOC current collapse can occur in less than one decade.
NATO's HVAC: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
The AMOC HVAC balancing act keeps temperatures in the U.S., Canada, and EU 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius) warmer than it would otherwise be. AMOC also brings nutrients, oxygen and heat north from tropical waters while moving colder water south — a balancing act that keeps both sides of the Atlantic 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius) warmer than it would otherwise be.
Leading climatologist Michael Mann and others published a letter October 21, 2024 warning that the current weakening giant climate conveyer belt is underestimated and warrant urgent climate action. Research shows the AMOC is slowing down and could soon reach a tipping point due to global warming, throwing Earth's climate into chaos.
The last time the AMOC switched modes during the most recent ice age, the climate near Greenland increased by 18 to 27 degrees Fahrenheit (10 to 15 degrees Celsius) within a decade.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is Already Slowing
A deepen a strange "cold blob" that has already developed over the eastern North Atlantic due to the slowdown of heat-carrying currents.
The AMOC can exist in two stable states: a stronger, faster one that we rely upon today, and another that is much slower and weaker. Previous estimates predicted that the current would probably switch to its weaker mode sometime in the next century.
30% Weaker by 2040
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is now forecast to be 30% weaker by 2040.
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