Its Getting Hot in Here: Weather Forecasts Worsen as Temperatures Rise

Global Mean Near Surface Temperature rise, from 1960 to predicted 2030 values. Bars represent data used for predictions. Taken from the World Meteorological Organization Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2025.

Steadily rising global temperatures continue to dominate the narrative surrounding climate change, and its subsequent consequences on our planet. However, the most recent Global Annual Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029) from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) provides a different question: Are we talking about rising temperatures enough?  

The World Meteorological Organization report is a prediction of global annual trends, obtained from data models contributed to by over 14 different institutes-including various data centers across the world. Forecast skill, or the ability to forecast projection into the future, are validated using Retrospective forecasts (also known as hindcasts) covering a period of time from 1960-2018. It is important to note that this regional “correlation skill”, can differ from average skill globally. 

Why This Matters 

The WMO predicts that 2025-2029:

• Range 1.2°C to 1.9°C Above 1850-1900 Average: Global mean temperatures are likely to continue at near record levels in the period between 2025-2029, which is estimated to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over 1850-1900.

• 70% Chance Above 1.5°C: It is likely (70% chance) that the 2025-2029 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average temperatures.

• Arctic 2.4°C Above1850-1900 Average: The average Arctic temperature over the next five extended winters (November to March), relative to the recent climatological normal (the average of the years 1991-2020), is predicted to be 2.4°C, more than three and a half times as large as the anomaly in global mean temperature.

• Arctic Sea Ice Collapsing: Predictions of Arctic sea-ice for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.

• Increase Extreme Weather: Predicted precipitation patterns for May-September 2025-2029, relative to the 1991-2020 average, suggest anomalously wet conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and anomalously dry conditions for this season over the Amazon.

Details

The alarming trends both measured over the last few decades, as well as the current projections indicate that rising temperatures are not slowing down: A sign that we may even need to make more of a concerted effort to invest in remediation efforts. 

Among a plethora of other risks, increases to surface temperatures in the oceans and pressure from the water on life in the oceans can, and already is, presenting a massive danger to many marine organisms that reside there. Marine biodiversity is extremely reliant on coral reefs for instance, where even the most miniscule changes in water composition can lead to massive losses. From a financial perspective, many countries that rely on fisheries potentially will suffer heavy losses. Insurance companies may lose out as sea level continues to rise, faster than we can move people from the coastlines. 

Marine organisms aren’t the only ones affected by these new trends. People will suffer consequences as well. A drop in precipitation, in combination with other reasons, is proving to worry many about the availability of clean water to drink in the coming decades, further compounding the already devastating effects of rising temperatures. In summary, a world-wide freshwater shortage could be extremely detrimental to both human and animal qualities of life alike. 

Action Items for Business

• Measure, monitor, and manage your GhG footprint across scopes 1, 2, and 3.

• Implement your GhG reduction plan.