The Mysterious Meandering Mississippi: Extreme Weather Risks the Old River Control Structure and the U.S. Economy

How does the blue economy affect national asset health?

The Mississippi River, at more than 3,800 miles long, flowing through 10 states and providing drinking water to 30 million Americans, is worth hundreds of billions of dollars to the U.S. economy annually. But the Mississippi River, like all rivers, meanders back and forth along its path: In this case, the Mississippi Delta from Texas to Louisiana and back again. 

While the Old River Control Structure is a technological marvel, in its ability to channel the Mississippi River, an increase in extreme weather forecasting of 60% greater water volume through the Mississippi River leaves the economies of Texas and Louisiana extremely vulnerable to climate change and risks from extreme weather. 

Why This Matters 

• Compounding climate risks, including flooding, could cause billions of dollars in damages. 

• Erosion at the delta could worsen, coastal defenses would be overwhelmed, and land loss would accelerate through said increasing erosion. 

• Degradation of surrounding wetland ecosystems could endanger wildlife, decrease water quality, and even reduce the ability of wetlands as a natural barrier to severe storm reduction. 

• Reduction in fisheries could significantly impact Louisiana economic growth. 

Figure 1: Maps of estimated percent change of precipitation (a), soil moisture (b), evapotranspiration (c), and runoff (d), between 2005-2056, and the coming decades (2050-2100).

With extreme weather increasing, it now may be possible that an unprecedented and catastrophic failure of the Old River Control Structure would cause billions of dollars in damages to the Louisiana and Texas economies, and investors are not paying attention due the meandering Mississippi River and its potential consequences (Figure 1). 

Engineering a Shift in the Mississippi’s Flow. 

While ORCS was seen as a success at the time, its channeling of the Mississippi River has left the economies of Texas and Louisiana vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events. Specifically, extreme weather events forecast 60% greater water volume in the Mississippi River in the mid-term, generating unprecedented stress on the structure. Long term buildup of sediment, which plugs the river channel, further exacerbates such events and increases flood risk. 

As sedimentation and extreme weather grow in frequency and severity, the once remote threat of catastrophic failure of the Old River Control Structure is now a material risk with the potential to inflict hundreds of billions of dollars in damage on Louisiana and Texas.   

Action Items:  

• Actors across sectors, including ecologists, engineers, and policy makers should come together with their respected inputs, with the intent of creating a flexible management plan that includes, potential restructure plans for ORCS, and wetland restoration projects to allow for the Mississippi River to to gradually shift its path to a more natural and sustainable state. 

• Immediate disclosure of structure deficiencies in ORCS, as well as their associated risks is vital to maintaining healthy human and environmental systems. Other risks, including species loss, biodiversity loss, financial loss due to grain shortages, and climate modeling should all be addressed and used to inform the new maintenance plan for ORCS. 

• Rigorous testing, including sediment and river water sampling, as well as ecological species count and diversity sampling in surrounding wetlands is crucial towards maintaining the biological structure around the Atchafalaya Basin. 

• Disaster planning, but in terms of evacuation planning and flooding mitigation plans should take place. 

• Policy makers and regulators should help create more actionable urgency by working with investors and ORCS administrators to model climate risks including chronic and acute physical risks as well as related transition risks and opportunities.