Without pollination, most plants would be unable to reproduce, resulting in fewer seeds for a new generation of plants, which would significantly reduce plant populations and the genetic diversity necessary for ecosystems to adapt and remain resilient, particularly in the face of climate change.

 

Pollination can occur through various means, including wind, insects, animals, or even water. However, more than 80% of flowering plants and about 75% of all staple crops depend on animal pollinators (USDA).

 

For example, U.S. cocoa ($1.91 billion) exports depend entirely on tiny midges measuring less than 4 millimeters—the only pollinators capable of fertilizing cacao flowers. This dependency illustrates a fundamental but often overlooked reality: natural ecosystem services form the invisible foundation of international trade and national economic competitiveness.  

 

The economic value of pollination services remains largely unmeasured despite supporting entire agricultural sectors worth billions of dollars.

 

With wild pollinator populations declining, the economic implications remain poorly quantified at the national scale (Penn State Uni., USDA). Existing studies typically focus on individual crops or regional analyses, failing to capture the aggregate economic exposure within national trade portfolios. This quantification gap creates a blind spot for policymakers who must weigh conservation investments against other economic priorities without clear understanding of the financial stakes involved. Furthermore, the lack of standardized economic valuation methodology limits the integration of pollinator services into national economic accounting systems, rendering these services economically "invisible" despite their material importance to agricultural output and export competitiveness.

 

In this study, we address a specific, quantifiable research questions:  

• What is the measurable economic value of pollinator services embedded within US agricultural exports?  

• How much of this value faces direct risk from pollinator decline?  

 

Rather than attempting to estimate total domestic agricultural value, this analysis focuses on the more tractable question of export value at risk. We examine three major categories of pollinatordependent agricultural exports—cocoa products, citrus fruits, and other fruits.

 

Nevertheless, even this conservative analysis demonstrates that pollinator services support quantifiable economic value equivalent to the GDP of several small nations, providing an empirical foundation for evaluating conservation investments and agricultural risk management strategies

 

This paper proceeds through five analytical stages to establish the economic value of pollinator services within US agricultural exports.  

 

Following this introduction, Section 2 describes:

• the methodology, including data sources,  

• crop selection criteria, and  

• the derivation of pollinator dependency coefficients from agricultural science literature.  Section 3 describes:

• the results,  

• quantifying export values,  

• risk exposure across crop categories while establishing the US position in global markets.

Section 4 discusses:

• the implications of these findings, and

• contextualizing the $2.73 billion at-risk value within broader economic and ecological frameworks while acknowledging significant underestimation factors.

​

Section One

Methodology: Integration of Trade and Economic Statistics

This analysis integrates agricultural trade data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Trade Statistics with national economic data from the World Bank World Development Indicators to establish baseline economic relationships. Export value data were extracted from three FAO Trade Statistics CSV files covering 2021 trade flows: "Export Cocoa 2021.csv" (199 countries), "Export Citrus 2021.csv" (169 countries), and "Other Fruits 2021.csv" (179 countries).

 

GDP data were obtained from the World Bank's World Development Indicators database (indicator code NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), providing 2021 national GDP figures in current US dollars for comparative analysis. Trade data were supplemented with market intelligence from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC.world).

 

The OEC database offers insights into trade dynamics beyond simple export values. For the analyzed commodities, OEC data reveals that cocoa products rank among the most geographically concentrated exports globally, with the top 5 exporters controlling over 70% of global trade.  

This concentration amplifies the economic significance of pollinator services, as disruption in major producing regions could trigger substantial price volatility in global markets. Conversely, OEC data shows that fruit exports exhibit greater geographic distribution, potentially providing more resilience against localized pollinator decline.

 

Crop Selection

Crop selection followed three primary criteria:

• Commodities were selected based on clear pollinator dependency relationships established in agricultural science literature, avoiding crops with ambiguous or disputed pollination requirements.  

• Selected categories required sufficient export volume to generate meaningful economic signals within national trade statistics, excluding minor specialty crops despite potential high pollinator dependency.  

• FAO Trade Statistics classification systems provided standardized commodity codes enabling consistent international comparisons.

 

Cocoa and cocoa products (HS Codes 41801, 41802, 41803, 41804, 41805, 41806) were selected due to their extreme pollinator dependency and substantial US export volumes. Theobroma cacao exhibits obligate outcrossing with specialized pollination requirements fulfilled exclusively by Ceratopogonidae midges (Forcipomyia spp.).

 

Citrus fruits (HS Code 20805) represent moderate dependency relationships with established alternatives (Monasterolo et al.). While Citrus species can achieve some fruit set through selfpollination, cross-pollination significantly enhances yield quantity and fruit quality. OEC data confirms that citrus exports involve substantial intra-industry trade, with processed citrus products commanding premium prices in international markets. Their value is potentially lost if pollinator decline reduces fruit quality even without eliminating production entirely.

 

The "other fruits" category (HS Code 20810) captures the diversity of pollinator-dependent fruit production while maintaining analytical tractability. This category includes apples (90% pollinator dependent), berries (40% to 90% dependent), and stone fruits (variable dependency).

 

Scientific Basis for Economic Risk Assessment

Pollinator dependency coefficients represent the core methodological innovation enabling translation from biological relationships to economic risk assessment. These coefficients quantify the proportion of agricultural output directly attributable to animal pollination services, derived from controlled pollination exclusion experiments and observational studies in agricultural science literature, see e.g. Garrett et al[1].

 

The cocoa dependency coefficient of 0.90 reflects near-complete reliance on midge pollination for commercial cacao production. Field studies consistently demonstrate that cocoa yields decline by 80% to 90% in the absence of Forcipomyia midges, with remaining fruit set attributed to rare autogamy events. Critically, no viable artificial pollination alternatives exist for cacao at commercial scale, as the flowers measure only 1 centimeters to 2 centimeters and require precise timing for successful fertilization. This biological constraint creates a direct 1:1 relationship between pollinator availability and economic output.

 

Citrus dependency coefficients of 0.35 reflect moderate pollination enhancement rather than absolute requirement. Controlled studies demonstrate that citrus yields improve by 18% to 35% with cross-pollination compared to self-pollination alone, while fruit quality measures (sugar content, size, seed development) show more dramatic improvements of 40% to 60%. The economic coefficient captures both quantity and quality effects, acknowledging that export market premiums often depend on fruit quality characteristics enhanced by effective pollination. The "other fruits" coefficient of 0.65 represents a weighted average across diverse crop types with varying pollination requirements. Apples exhibit 90% dependency while blueberries range from 40% to 90% depending on variety and growing conditions. Stone fruits typically show 40% to 60% dependency, with significant variation based on self-compatibility characteristics. The 0.65 coefficient reflects the export portfolio composition of US fruit trades, weighted toward higherdependency crops like apples and berries that dominate US fruit export value.

 

Calculation Framework: Export Value Risk Assessment

The economic risk assessment employs a direct multiplication framework: Export Value × Dependency Coefficient = Value at Risk. This approach assumes that pollinator service disruption would reduce export values proportionally to biological dependency relationships, representing a conservative estimate that excludes potential price effects from supply disruptions.

 

For each crop category, the calculation proceeds as follows:

• Cocoa: $1.910 billion x 90% = $1.72 billion at risk.

• Citrus: $903 million x 35% = $316 million at risk.

• Other Fruits: $1.07 billion x 65% = $695 million at risk.

• Total Risk: $2.7 billion at risk across the three categories.

 

Note: These are estimates with calculations varying due to other unrelated criteria.

This framework explicitly excludes several potential amplification effects that could increase actual economic impacts. Price elasticity effects are not modeled. If US production declined while global demand remained constant, export prices might increase, partially offsetting volume losses. Conversely, if multiple producing countries experienced simultaneous pollinator decline, global supply disruptions could generate price volatility exceeding the direct production effects captured in dependency coefficients.

 

Limitations: Scope Constraints and Underestimation Factors

This analysis acknowledges significant scope limitations that likely result in substantial underestimation of true economic exposure. The three analyzed crop categories represent only a subset of pollinator-dependent US agricultural exports, excluding nuts (almonds alone exceed $5 billion in annual exports), vegetables (cucumbers, squash, melons), oilseeds (sunflower, canola), and numerous specialty crops with high pollinator dependency.

 

Geographic scope limitations also constrain the analysis. Export data capture only international trade flows, excluding the much larger domestic agricultural economy where pollinator services support food production for 331 million US consumers. Additionally, the analysis excludes indirect economic effects through agricultural supply chains, food processing industries, and employment multipliers that could amplify the direct production impacts quantified here.

 

Temporal limitations restrict the analysis to a single-year snapshot, preventing assessment of trends, volatility, or long-term structural changes in pollinator-dependent trade.  

 

Finally, the methodology assumes linear relationships between pollinator availability and economic output, when ecological research suggests threshold effects and non-linear responses may characterize pollinator-crop relationships under stress conditions.

 

Section 3

Results

The 2021 analysis reveals that US exports of pollinator-dependent crops in the three analyzed categories generated $3.88 billion in international trade value. However, this narrow analysis significantly understates the broader economic significance of pollinator-dependent trade. US pollinator-dependent exports total $16.17 billion annually across all categories. The U.S. is therefore the world's largest pollinator-dependent exporter globally. This $16.17 billion in total pollinator-dependent exports exceeds the individual export values of aircraft parts, beef, and medical appliances, demonstrating the strategic importance of these trade flows within the US export portfolio.  

 

The analyzed categories of cocoa ($1.91 billion), citrus ($903 million), and other fruits ($1.07 billion) represent approximately 23.9% of total US pollinator-dependent export activity, indicating that the present analysis captures less than one-quarter of the nation's economic exposure to pollinator decline (Figure 2).