Amongst the mayhem and noise, BNEF’s US clean energy 2035 forecast under the new administration shows 83% of renewable energy deployments when compared to Biden’s original IRA. Under a full repeal of the IRA tax credits and over the period 2025-2035, wind, solar, and energy storage sectors could experience a 17% drop in total new capacity. This is still 927 gigawatts (GW) of cumulative build compared to 1,118GW in BNEF’s base case forecast.
Why It Matters
Wind would drop 35% drop, which is a 65% increase.
Energy storage would drop 15%, which is an 85% increase.
Solar would drop 13%, which is an 87% increase.
The Steps Forward
The US is on track to see over 25% growth in annual clean energy installations in 2024.
Republican states: Republican states have received 80% of the IRA’s money to date. It is difficult for politicians to run against job creation. These funds have created thousands of jobs and built factories.
Washington State: Voters rejected Ballot Initiative 2117 to repeal the Climate Commitment Act, which authorized a market-based “cap and invest” program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 95% by 2050.
California: Voters approved the $10 billion bond Proposition 4 to fund climate resilience to addressing wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Federal Emergency Management Agency states that for each $1 spent on climate resilience, it saves taxpayers $6 on disaster relief.
Louisiana: Voters approved a constitutional amendment requiring revenue received from renewable energy production to fund Louisiana’s Coastal Protection and Restoration Fund. Louisiana has lost almost 1,900 square miles of coastland. This is slightly smaller than the EU27 country Luxembourg.
South Dakota: Voters rejected a ballot measure to ease construction of CCS pipelines.
While the U.S. may take steps back in the near-term, it is clear that there exists momentum to mitigate climate change and become more resilient to catastrophic wildfires, flooding, and hurricanes.
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